Real estate activity in the Park City area began its seasonal taper in November posting 99 residential transactions. This represents a 20% decline month-over-month, a trend that is very typical for this time of year.

Traditionally sales will remain steady through year end then drop meaningfully in the first two months of the year before beginning to gain momentum at the end of Q1 into Q2.

Notably, November 2023 outpaced the same period a year ago by almost 25% while prices continue to rise. This was driven by a meaningful spike in premium home sales that included 91 of 99 transactions $1 million, 47 greater than $2 million, 5 between 12 greater than $5,000,000 and 4 exceptional properties above $10,000,000.

The circumstances of the market seem to be steady pricing for great homes but an unrealized decline for homes that require forms of deferred maintenance in price points more sensitive to high-interest rates. This relatively slow period for transaction quantity gives outsized weight to these premium transactions and demonstrates a pricing stability that may not be entirely representative of the overall market performance.

The overall share of homes selling for greater than $1 million has reached an all-time high at 74% of all residential transactions. The year is within a whisker of equaling all-time totals for each of the premium thresholds mentioned above.

Active listing inventory similarly tapers this time of year. The number of properties currently for sale has dropped below 100. All factors seem to be aligned for a rebound to historic averages in 2024. As a second home market, Park City has never been overly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. However, the tremendous spike in rates in the last year has changed the accessibility to easy leverage that renders most transactions cash. While most regional consumers have the capacity for such purchases, they are generally seeking a discount for having to deploy their resources in this way.

The prevailing sense of a rate cut in 2024 is proving an accelerant to equity markets in recent weeks and months. Real estate is likely to be a lagging indicator, in that the purchase activity will likely follow such an action. Nonetheless, any relief for purchasers that drives interest rates below 7% will likely be stimulating the local market where expressions of demand remain high. Should demand accelerate, more supply is likely to loosen up simultaneously as today’s crop of reluctant sellers find motivation to liquidate.