The gray (2019) chart line shows the traditional historic decline from Summer into the holiday period. 2020 (orange) was the exception as the pandemic had its initial effect at mid-year. 2021 (yellow) has followed a more “normal” path with but a few deviations. 2022 (green) began with a drop of 53 listings in January but reversed direction gaining 39 listings in February and continued with gains of 117 in March, piled it on with 111 more in April, then exploded in May and June with 281 and 379 more listings respectively. That 379 is the largest single month increase in the past eight years. Not surprisingly, inventory gained just 114 units in July and then dropped in August and September as we start to see a traditional late summer decline. Still, inventory numbers are looking very optimistic for the first time in two years
Prices are still rising compared to last year, but at a slower rate July 2022 National Home Prices
The latest CoreLogic price analysis reports home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 15.8% in July 2022 compared with July 2021. On a month-over month basis, home prices declined by 0.3% in July 2022 compared with June 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.3% from July 2022 to August 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 3.8% from July 2022 to July 2023.
The drop from 15.8% to 3.8% in the year-over-year projection is more than significant. It reflects a trend reported elsewhere from multiple sources. CoreLogic continues, Annual home price growth slowed for the third consecutive month in July but remained elevated at 15.8%. As 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages neared 6% this summer, some prospective homebuyers pulled back, helping ease overheated and unsustainable price growth. Notably, home prices declined by 0.3% from June to July, a trend not seen between 2010 and 2019, when price increases averaged 0.5% between those two months, according to CoreLogic’s historic data. Looking ahead, CoreLogic expects to see a more balanced housing market, with year-over year appreciation slowing to 3.8% by July 2023.
Source: https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights-september-2022/
Home prices are dropping like it’s 2009
Home prices are now posting the biggest monthly declines since January 2009, according to the latest Mortgage Monitor report from Black Knight.
Median home prices in August fell 0.98%, only slightly better than July’s 1.05% monthly decline. The average home price is down 2% ($8,800) from its June peak nationally as we enter the historically slower fall-winter homebuying season. The housing market has not seen such a significant two-month drop in prices since shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the winter of 2008, Black Knight said. Skyrocketing mortgage rates – now in the 7% range for some buyers – and limited inventory have driven mortgage affordability to its lowest levels since the early 1980s, a reversal from the frenetic boom in buying during 2020 and 2021.
Source: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/home-prices-are-dropping-like-its-2009/
But what about here?
It’s probably safe to say that neither report is directly applicable to the Park City market.
Pricing
The median sales price of a single-family home in the greater Park City area jumped significantly in September to $2.99 million, up 62.2% from August and 22.6% from September 2021. This is the first time since April that the price point rose above the trend line. It’s not unreasonable to expect a bit of a downturn in median sale price after such a meteoric rise, nearly doubling over the past three years. But as we enter the slower fall selling season, a jump as big as this was unexpected. We are close to our all-time high median sale price of $3.2 million in November 2021.
Median Condominium sales prices were an entirely different story. The September median fell 5.1% from August but remained significantly higher than a year earlier, jumping a very respectable 29.9% over September of last year.
Article Authored by Bob Bemis
Original Article Featured in PCMLS Monthly